Comments on: The Black Swan Portfolio http://venturepopulist.com/2009/05/the-black-swan-portfolio/ "Venture to the People" Fri, 30 Jul 2010 16:09:31 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Mike K http://venturepopulist.com/2009/05/the-black-swan-portfolio/comment-page-1/#comment-1504 Mike K Thu, 06 May 2010 17:01:47 +0000 http://venturepopulist.com/?p=706#comment-1504 Hi I am interested in how to contruct Portfolio B with options/options on futures. Do you have any posts on how to contruct and implement portfolio B on your blog? Thanks Hi

I am interested in how to contruct Portfolio B with options/options on futures. Do you have any posts on how to contruct and implement portfolio B on your blog?

Thanks

]]> By: Curious George http://venturepopulist.com/2009/05/the-black-swan-portfolio/comment-page-1/#comment-682 Curious George Thu, 24 Dec 2009 01:00:56 +0000 http://venturepopulist.com/?p=706#comment-682 If you insure against market risk (principal protected funds, equity indexed annuities, AAA insured bonds, FDIC CEDRS CD's, etc.), then you don't have to buy into any theories or lose a penny of your profits. Most people take too much risk and think Knightian tenants. (It was Frank H. Knight’s (1921) landmark thesis that put the issue at the very heart of entrepreneurship research. As Blaug (1996: 444) notes, “The beauty of Knight’s argument was to show that the presence of true ‘uncertainty’ about the future might allow entrepreneurs to earn positive profits despite perfect competition, long-run equilibrium and product exhaustion.” Knight identified three types of uncertainty: The first one (now generally accepted as the notion of risk), consists of a future with a known distribution – only the particular draw that will actually occur is unknown; the second one (generally known by the term uncertainty), involves a future whose distribution is unknown, but can be estimated by studying draws over time; and the third one that Knight called true uncertainty (that is now known as Knightian uncertainty), consists of a future whose distribution is not only unknown, but unknowable. If you insure against market risk (principal protected funds, equity indexed annuities, AAA insured bonds, FDIC CEDRS CD’s, etc.), then you don’t have to buy into any theories or lose a penny of your profits. Most people take too much risk and think Knightian tenants. (It was Frank H. Knight’s (1921) landmark thesis that put the issue at the very heart of entrepreneurship research. As Blaug (1996: 444) notes, “The beauty of Knight’s argument was to show that the presence of true ‘uncertainty’ about the future might allow entrepreneurs to earn positive profits despite perfect competition, long-run equilibrium and product exhaustion.” Knight identified three types of uncertainty: The first one (now generally accepted as the notion of risk), consists of a future with a known distribution – only the particular draw that will actually occur is unknown; the second one (generally known by the term uncertainty), involves a future whose distribution is unknown, but can be estimated by studying draws over time; and the third one that Knight called true uncertainty (that is now known as Knightian uncertainty), consists of a future whose distribution is not only unknown, but unknowable.

]]> By: Neal H. Levin http://venturepopulist.com/2009/05/the-black-swan-portfolio/comment-page-1/#comment-16 Neal H. Levin Thu, 28 May 2009 05:11:10 +0000 http://venturepopulist.com/?p=706#comment-16 I ponder the relevance of The Black Swan Portfolio theory to sustainability (ESG or Triple Bottom Line theories). For instance, we don't know whether we possess the "solution" to climate change, but the failure of our environment and the depletion of human capital (see http://bit.ly/oGnl6) from our continued unwillingness to take risk (develop, invest in and deploy interim solutions) is imminent. I ponder the relevance of The Black Swan Portfolio theory to sustainability (ESG or Triple Bottom Line theories). For instance, we don’t know whether we possess the “solution” to climate change, but the failure of our environment and the depletion of human capital (see http://bit.ly/oGnl6) from our continued unwillingness to take risk (develop, invest in and deploy interim solutions) is imminent.

]]> By: Tom Byrne http://venturepopulist.com/2009/05/the-black-swan-portfolio/comment-page-1/#comment-15 Tom Byrne Sat, 23 May 2009 15:56:08 +0000 http://venturepopulist.com/?p=706#comment-15 As an investment professional with 30 years in the financial markets, I have witnessed the continual belief in the defective "Buy & Hold" approach promoted by the Wall Street marketing machine. Since the tools or structures necessary to manage risks and returns do not exist in the typical Broker/Advisor world, one can only expect the uninformed public to continue to get the "short end" of the investment equation. Tom Byrne As an investment professional with 30 years in the financial markets, I have witnessed the continual belief in the defective “Buy & Hold” approach promoted by the Wall Street marketing machine. Since the tools or structures necessary to manage risks and returns do not exist in the typical Broker/Advisor world, one can only expect the uninformed public to continue to get the “short end” of the investment equation.

Tom Byrne

]]>